by Stefan J. Bos, Worthy News Europe Bureau Chief
BUDAPEST (Worthy News) – Senior European intelligence officials see little chance of ending Russia’s war in Ukraine this year, despite President Donald J. Trump’s claim that U.S.-brokered negotiations have brought a peace deal “reasonably close.”
The heads of five European spy agencies told Reuters news agency in recent days, speaking on condition of anonymity, that Moscow does not appear interested in a swift settlement.
Four of the officials said Russia is using talks with Washington to seek sanctions relief and potential business arrangements rather than a comprehensive peace agreement.
Two officials said Moscow is attempting to split negotiations into separate tracks — one focused on the war itself and another centered on bilateral U.S.-Russia agreements that could include easing sanctions.
‘NEGOTIATION THEATER’
The latest round of negotiations took place this week in Geneva, but one European intelligence chief described them as “negotiation theater.”
“Russia is not seeking a peace agreement. They are seeking their strategic goals, and those have not changed,” one official said.
Those goals include weakening or removing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and turning Ukraine into what Moscow calls a “neutral” buffer state between Russia and the West.
One intelligence chief said Russia neither wants nor needs a quick peace, arguing its economy is “not on the verge of collapse.” However, another warned Moscow could face “very high” financial risks in the second half of 2026 due to sanctions and restricted access to capital markets.
A second official said Russia might be territorially satisfied if it secured the remainder of Donetsk, but that this would not fulfill its broader objective of replacing Zelensky’s pro-Western government.
DONETSK CONCESSIONS?
A third intelligence chief cautioned against the belief that Ukraine ceding the rest of Donetsk would quickly produce peace.
“In the case of the Russians getting these concessions, I think that this is maybe the beginning of actual negotiations,” the official said, predicting further Russian demands.
The officials did not disclose how they obtained their assessments and provided no public evidence. Intelligence services typically rely on a combination of human sources and technical collection methods, particularly when monitoring strategically important adversaries such as Russia.
They also voiced concern about what they described as limited negotiating expertise across parts of the West, including Europe.
SECURITY GUARANTEES
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said recent Western reporting suggests the United States may not finalize a security agreement with Ukraine until after Kyiv and Moscow reach a peace deal.
In a report seen by Worthy News, ISW said Washington is pressing Ukraine to consider concessions to conclude a peace agreement by summer 2026, while the Kremlin portrays territorial control — particularly in Donetsk and southern Ukraine — as the main unresolved issue.
ISW noted Ukraine has indicated it could consider withdrawing forces from parts of Donetsk it does not control without formally recognizing Russian sovereignty there, in exchange for meaningful Western security guarantees.
Russia, however, has consistently rejected Western security guarantees for Ukraine, including the deployment of foreign troops or monitoring missions, suggesting territorial concessions alone would not resolve the conflict.
For now, European intelligence chiefs remain skeptical that current diplomacy will yield a breakthrough this year, underscoring a widening gap between Washington’s public optimism and Europe’s more cautious assessments.
Copyright 1999-2026 Worthy News. This article was originally published on Worthy News and was reproduced with permission.
Latest News from Worthy News
A suspected Islamic extremist armed with a knife stabbed three men in front of schoolchildren at a train station near Zurich, Switzerland’s financial capital, officials said Thursday.
The Pentagon has spent months positioning warships, aircraft, surveillance assets, and Marines around the Caribbean as President Donald Trump weighs possible military action against Cuba, according to a Politico report.
U.S. Central Command has confirmed to Congress that foreign adversaries have exploited commercially available cell phone location data to surveil and potentially target American military personnel in active war zones, raising fresh concerns over troop security in the Middle East.
The U.S. Department of War is stepping up efforts to protect Christians in Nigeria after President Donald Trump directed military leaders to focus on terrorist networks targeting believers in the West African nation, War Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel now controls roughly 60 percent of the Gaza Strip and has ordered the Israel Defense Forces to expand that control to 70 percent, signaling a major escalation in Jerusalem’s campaign to weaken Hamas and prevent the terror group from rebuilding its military rule.
Israel carried out a targeted strike Thursday in a suburb south of Beirut, marking its first attack near the Lebanese capital in three weeks as the conflict with Hezbollah and Iran-backed terrorist groups intensifies.
President Donald Trump is weighing whether to approve a 60-day memorandum of understanding with Iran that would extend the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted shipping, and launch a new round of negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program.